Ogre United vs Rīgas FS: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija, Ogre
The Footlab model makes Rīgas FS the favourite at 80%, against 14% for a draw and 7% for Ogre United. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ogre United vs Rīgas FS?
Rīgas FS is a heavy favourite: 1,955 Elo points against 1,448 — a 507-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ogre United have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Rīgas FS have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FS Jelgava(home) | 2-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 1-3 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Riga(away) | 1-4 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Grobiņa(away) | 2-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 19, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(home) | 0-4 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Riga(home) | 3-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FK Jablonec(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 6-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FK Jablonec(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Ogre United win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Rīgas FS win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2026 | Rīgas FS 6-0 Ogre United | Virsliga |
| May 2, 2026 | Ogre United 3-4 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| Mar 6, 2026 | Rīgas FS 2-0 Ogre United | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: Rīgas FS vs Ogre United on Jun 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ogre United score 1.1 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Rīgas FS score 2.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ogre United | 1.1 | 2.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Rīgas FS | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ogre United sit 10th in Virsliga (14 points from 26 matches) and Rīgas FS sit 1st (66 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 26 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 65 | 20 | 66 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 26 | 68 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ogre United vs Rīgas FS?
- The Footlab model makes Rīgas FS the favourite at 80%, against 14% for a draw and 7% for Ogre United.
- Where and when is Ogre United vs Rīgas FS played?
- Ogre United vs Rīgas FS is played on August 30, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ogres pilsētas ģimnāzija, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.