Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Grobiņas stadionā, Grobiņa
The Footlab model makes BFC Daugavpils the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Grobiņa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils?
BFC Daugavpils starts as the favourite with a 149-point Elo edge (1,645 vs 1,496).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Grobiņa have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; BFC Daugavpils have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FK Liepaja(away) | 1-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Auda(away) | 2-3 | Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Rīgas FS(away) | 1-6 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Riga(away) | 0-4 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 2-2 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FS Jelgava(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Auda(away) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Grobiņa win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 BFC Daugavpils win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils 1-0 Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| May 2, 2026 | Grobiņa 1-1 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| Mar 7, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils 0-1 Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| Sep 15, 2025 | BFC Daugavpils 3-2 Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| Jun 26, 2025 | BFC Daugavpils 3-2 Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| May 4, 2025 | Grobiņa 1-0 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: BFC Daugavpils vs Grobiņa on Jun 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Grobiņa score 0.8 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; BFC Daugavpils score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grobiņa | 0.8 | 2.1 | 2 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| BFC Daugavpils | 1.4 | 0.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Grobiņa sit 8th in Virsliga (21 points from 27 matches) and BFC Daugavpils sit 4th (37 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BFC Daugavpils | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 31 | 37 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 50 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils?
- The Footlab model makes BFC Daugavpils the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Grobiņa.
- Where and when is Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils played?
- Grobiņa vs BFC Daugavpils is played on August 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Grobiņas stadionā, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.