Auda vs Super Nova: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Mežaparks Sports Village, Riga
The Footlab model makes Auda the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Super Nova. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Auda vs Super Nova?
Auda starts as the favourite with a 223-point Elo edge (1,777 vs 1,554).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Auda have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Super Nova have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 3-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 3-2 | Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Tukums(away) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Auda win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Super Nova win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | Super Nova 0-2 Auda | Virsliga |
| May 1, 2026 | Super Nova 1-2 Auda | Virsliga |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Auda 2-1 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Auda 3-2 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Aug 18, 2025 | Auda 3-1 Super Nova | Cup |
| Jul 1, 2025 | Super Nova 0-1 Auda | Virsliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Auda score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Super Nova score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auda | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Super Nova | 1.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Auda sit 3rd in Virsliga (49 points from 25 matches) and Super Nova sit 6th (27 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Auda | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 26 | 49 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 24 | 8 | 3 | 13 | 26 | 37 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Auda vs Super Nova?
- The Footlab model makes Auda the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 14% for Super Nova.
- Where and when is Auda vs Super Nova played?
- Auda vs Super Nova is played on August 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Mežaparks Sports Village, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.