FK Liepaja vs Riga: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stadions Daugava mākslīgas laukums, Liepāja
The Footlab model makes Riga the favourite at 73%, against 16% for a draw and 11% for FK Liepaja. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FK Liepaja vs Riga?
Riga is a heavy favourite: 2,038 Elo points against 1,675 — a 363-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FK Liepaja have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Riga have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tukums(away) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Austria Vienna(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Austria Vienna(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Metta / LU(home) | 4-1 | Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Gyori ETO FC(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 4-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Gyori ETO FC(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 4-0 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FK Liepaja win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Riga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | Riga 4-0 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| May 3, 2026 | Riga 1-0 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| Mar 7, 2026 | FK Liepaja 2-1 Riga | Virsliga |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Riga 3-0 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| Sep 18, 2025 | FK Liepaja 0-4 Riga | Cup |
| Jul 19, 2025 | FK Liepaja 2-3 Riga | Virsliga |
How many goals should we expect?
FK Liepaja score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Riga score 2.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Liepaja | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Riga | 2.6 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FK Liepaja sit 5th in Virsliga (34 points from 25 matches) and Riga sit 2nd (64 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Riga | 25 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 76 | 21 | 64 |
| 5 | FK Liepaja | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 33 | 37 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FK Liepaja vs Riga?
- The Footlab model makes Riga the favourite at 73%, against 16% for a draw and 11% for FK Liepaja.
- Where and when is FK Liepaja vs Riga played?
- FK Liepaja vs Riga is played on August 30, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stadions Daugava mākslīgas laukums, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.