Tukums vs FS Jelgava: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions, Tukums
The Footlab model makes Tukums the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for FS Jelgava. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tukums vs FS Jelgava?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Tukums (1,507) and FS Jelgava (1,558).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tukums have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; FS Jelgava have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Auda(away) | 0-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 0-2 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Riga(away) | 1-3 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ogre United(away) | 3-2 | Virsliga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Auda(home) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 0-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tukums win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 FS Jelgava win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | FS Jelgava 4-1 Tukums | Virsliga |
| May 1, 2026 | Tukums 5-0 FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
| Mar 8, 2026 | FS Jelgava 2-1 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Tukums 1-1 FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
| Aug 23, 2025 | FS Jelgava 1-1 Tukums | Virsliga |
| Jun 17, 2025 | Tukums 1-1 FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Tukums score 1.1 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; FS Jelgava score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tukums | 1.1 | 2.4 | 0 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| FS Jelgava | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tukums sit 9th in Virsliga (20 points from 27 matches) and FS Jelgava sit 7th (28 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 46 | 28 |
| 9 | Tukums | 27 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 40 | 54 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tukums vs FS Jelgava?
- The Footlab model makes Tukums the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for FS Jelgava.
- Where and when is Tukums vs FS Jelgava played?
- Tukums vs FS Jelgava is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.