Osasuna vs Alaves: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on April 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea
The Footlab model makes Osasuna the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Alaves. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Osasuna vs Alaves?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Osasuna (2,054) and Alaves (2,074).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Osasuna have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Alaves have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Al Ain(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Girona(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Osasuna win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Alaves win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Alaves 2-2 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Osasuna 3-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| May 24, 2025 | Alaves 1-1 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Osasuna 2-2 Alaves | La Liga |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Osasuna 1-2 Alaves | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 4, 2024 | Osasuna 1-0 Alaves | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Osasuna score 1.2 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Alaves score 1.6 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Alaves | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Osasuna vs Alaves?
- The Footlab model makes Osasuna the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Alaves.
- Where and when is Osasuna vs Alaves played?
- Osasuna vs Alaves is played on April 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Sadar, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.