Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaMatchday 33Kick-off on April 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Villarreal. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atletico Madrid wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,585 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 122-point Elo edge (2,252 vs 2,129).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Villarreal
4-4-2- 9G. Mikautadze
- 21T. Oluwaseyi
- 16C. Macia
- 17T. Buchanan
- 10Alberto Moleiro
- 18P. Gueye
- 15S. Mouriño
- 12Renato Veiga
- 20Carlos Romero
- 2Logan Costa
- 25P. Gulácsi
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2- 19J. Álvarez
- 7Lee Kang-In
- 8Pablo Barrios Rivas
- 10Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
- 20G. Simeone
- 6Koke
- 17Dávid Hancko
- 18Marc Pubill
- 22Alejandro Grimaldo
- 14Marcos Llorente
- 13Jan Oblak
Computed on November 13, 2026 at 11:16 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Villarreal have 6 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 0-6 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Manacor(away) | 5-0 | Copa del Rey |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Bayern München(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Levante(away) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 20, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Villarreal win, 3 draws, 2 Atletico Madrid wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 2-2 Villarreal | La Liga |
| May 24, 2026 | Villarreal 5-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 2-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 1-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2024 | Villarreal 2-2 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Apr 1, 2024 | Villarreal 1-2 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Villarreal score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Atletico Madrid | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Villarreal sit 8th in La Liga (15 points from 12 matches) and Atletico Madrid sit 3rd (28 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 10 | 28 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
A question about Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Villarreal.
- Where and when is Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid played?
- Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid is played on April 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de la Cerámica, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.