Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on April 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
The Footlab model makes Villarreal the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Atletico Madrid. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Villarreal (2,175) and Atletico Madrid (2,242).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Villarreal have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Levante(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lens(away) | 1-3 | Como Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Villarreal win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Atletico Madrid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 2-2 Villarreal | La Liga |
| May 24, 2026 | Villarreal 5-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 2-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 1-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2024 | Villarreal 2-2 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Apr 1, 2024 | Villarreal 1-2 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal on Aug 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Villarreal score 2.0 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Atletico Madrid | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Villarreal sit 9th in La Liga (2 points from 2 matches) and Atletico Madrid sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid?
- The Footlab model makes Villarreal the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Atletico Madrid.
- Where and when is Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid played?
- Villarreal vs Atletico Madrid is played on April 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de la Cerámica, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.