Match

Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano: prediction and stats

La LigaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on April 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia

ValenciaRayo Vallecano

The Footlab AI model makes Valencia the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Rayo Vallecano. The most likely score is 1-1. If Valencia wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?

A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Valencia (2,041) and Rayo Vallecano (2,080).

47%26%27%
Valencia winDrawRayo Vallecano win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Valencia

5-4-1
  1. 9Hugo Duro
  1. 8Javi Guerra
  2. 23F. Ugrinic
  3. 2G. Rodríguez
  4. 19Dani Raba
  1. 18Pepelu
  2. 14José Gayà
  3. 24Pablo Maffeo
  4. 12J. de Haas
  5. 4M. Diakhaby
  1. 1S. Dimitrievski

Rayo Vallecano

4-3-3
  1. 10Sergio Camello
  2. 18Álvaro García
  3. 19Jorge de Frutos
  1. 8Unai López
  2. 6P. Ciss
  3. 23Óscar Valentín
  1. 24F. Lejeune
  2. 2A. Rațiu
  3. 17Adrià Pedrosa
  4. 15Mujaid Sadick
  1. 25E. Audero

Computed on October 15, 2026 at 04:30 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valencia have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Rayo Vallecano have 5, 3 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Valencia
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Racing Santander(away)2-2La Liga
Sep 20, 2026Real Sociedad(home)2-3La Liga
Sep 15, 2026Alaves(away)1-0La Liga
Sep 11, 2026Sevilla(away)0-1La Liga
Sep 6, 2026Barcelona(home)0-5La Liga
Rayo Vallecano
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 19, 2026Osasuna(away)1-1La Liga
Sep 15, 2026Espanyol(home)2-1La Liga
Sep 12, 2026Real Madrid(away)1-4La Liga
Sep 5, 2026Racing Santander(home)3-2La Liga
Aug 31, 2026Barcelona(away)2-5La Liga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Valencia win, 4 draws, 1 Rayo Vallecano win.

DateScoreCompetition
May 14, 2026Valencia 1-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Dec 1, 2025Rayo Vallecano 1-1 ValenciaLa Liga
Apr 19, 2025Rayo Vallecano 1-1 ValenciaLa Liga
Dec 7, 2024Valencia 0-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
May 12, 2024Valencia 0-0 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
Dec 19, 2023Rayo Vallecano 0-1 ValenciaLa Liga

Last archived meeting: Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano on May 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Valencia score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Valencia1.21.739/1510/15
Rayo Vallecano1.41.9112/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Valencia sit 19th in La Liga (5 points from 8 matches) and Rayo Vallecano sit 13th (8 points from 7 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
13Rayo Vallecano722311168
19Valencia81256155

A question about Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?
The Footlab AI model makes Valencia the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Rayo Vallecano.
Where and when is Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano played?
Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano is played on April 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mestalla, in the La Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Valencia and Rayo Vallecano

Ready to know everything about football?