Real Madrid vs Elche: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 33Kick-off on April 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 75%, against 16% for a draw and 9% for Elche. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,395 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Elche?
Real Madrid is a heavy favourite: 2,325 Elo points against 2,022, a 303-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Real Madrid vs Elche
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1- 10Kylian Mbappé
- 8F. Valverde
- 5J. Bellingham
- 14A. Tchouaméni
- 25Y. Diomande
- 15A. Güler
- 16I. Konaté
- 22A. Rüdiger
- 17Marc Cucurella
- 24D. Dumfries
- 1T. Courtois
Elche
5-3-2- 14Fer Niño
- 20Tete Morente
- 12Gonzalo Villar
- 8Marc Aguado
- 18T. Lemar
- 11Germán Valera
- 23Víctor Chust
- 3R. Revivo
- 47J. Morcillo
- 2Buba Sangaré
- 1M. Dituro
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 02:12 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid have 12 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats; Elche have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | AS Roma(away) | 4-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 4-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Real Madrid wins, 2 draws, 0 Elche wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche 2-3 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Real Madrid 4-1 Elche | La Liga |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Elche 2-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Feb 15, 2023 | Real Madrid 4-0 Elche | La Liga |
| Oct 19, 2022 | Elche 0-3 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Jan 23, 2022 | Real Madrid 2-2 Elche | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Real Madrid score 2.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Elche score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2.5 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Elche | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Madrid sit 4th in La Liga (18 points from 8 matches) and Elche sit 18th (6 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 8 | 18 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 6 |
A question about Real Madrid vs Elche?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Madrid vs Elche?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 75%, against 16% for a draw and 9% for Elche.
- Where and when is Real Madrid vs Elche played?
- Real Madrid vs Elche is played on April 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.