Osasuna vs Barcelona: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea
The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Osasuna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Osasuna vs Barcelona?
Barcelona is a heavy favourite: 2,383 Elo points against 2,056 — a 328-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Osasuna have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Barcelona have 11, 1 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Al Ain(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Elche(away) | 5-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Al Ahly(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Basel 1893(away) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Osasuna win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Barcelona win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Osasuna 1-2 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Barcelona 2-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Mar 27, 2025 | Barcelona 3-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Osasuna 4-2 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Jan 31, 2024 | Barcelona 1-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Jan 11, 2024 | Barcelona 2-0 Osasuna | Super Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Osasuna score 1.2 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Barcelona score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Barcelona | 2.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Osasuna vs Barcelona?
- The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Osasuna.
- Where and when is Osasuna vs Barcelona played?
- Osasuna vs Barcelona is played on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Sadar, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.