Alaves vs Real Sociedad: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab model makes Alaves the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Real Sociedad. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alaves vs Real Sociedad?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Alaves (2,075) and Real Sociedad (2,098).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alaves have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Real Sociedad have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Girona(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | 1. FC Köln(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Alaves win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Real Sociedad win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Real Sociedad 3-3 Alaves | La Liga |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Alaves 2-3 Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Alaves 1-0 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Alaves 1-0 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Real Sociedad 1-2 Alaves | La Liga |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Alaves 1-1 Real Sociedad | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Real Sociedad vs Alaves on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alaves score 1.6 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Real Sociedad score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Real Sociedad | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alaves sit 2nd in La Liga (4 points from 2 matches) and Real Sociedad sit 19th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Real Sociedad?
- The Footlab model makes Alaves the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Real Sociedad.
- Where and when is Alaves vs Real Sociedad played?
- Alaves vs Real Sociedad is played on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mendizorroza, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.