Alaves vs Real Sociedad: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab AI model makes Alaves the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Real Sociedad. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alaves wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,566 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alaves vs Real Sociedad?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Alaves (2,064) and Real Sociedad (2,150).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alaves vs Real Sociedad
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alaves
5-3-2- 15L. Boyé
- 9M. Díaz
- 19Pablo Ibáñez
- 8Antonio Blanco
- 4Denis Suárez
- 14N. Tenaglia
- 21A. Rebbach
- 16V. Koski
- 7Angel Pérez
- 17Jonny
- 1Sivera
Real Sociedad
4-4-2- 10Mikel Oyarzabal
- 24L. Sučić
- 4Jon Gorrotxategi
- 11Gonçalo Guedes
- 7Barrenetxea
- 18Carlos Soler
- 19M. Sarr
- 17Sergio Gómez
- 6Jon Martín
- 2J. Aramburu
- 1Álex Remiro
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 10:37 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alaves have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Real Sociedad have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 1-6 | La Liga |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Levante(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Lillestrom(away) | 6-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Malaga(away) | 5-2 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Alaves wins, 2 draws, 1 Real Sociedad win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Real Sociedad 3-3 Alaves | La Liga |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Alaves 2-3 Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Alaves 1-0 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Alaves 1-0 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Real Sociedad 1-2 Alaves | La Liga |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Alaves 1-1 Real Sociedad | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Real Sociedad vs Alaves on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alaves score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Real Sociedad score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Real Sociedad | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alaves sit 11th in La Liga (12 points from 11 matches) and Real Sociedad sit 5th (19 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 19 |
| 11 | Alaves | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 12 |
A question about Alaves vs Real Sociedad?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Real Sociedad?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alaves the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Real Sociedad.
- Where and when is Alaves vs Real Sociedad played?
- Alaves vs Real Sociedad is played on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mendizorroza, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.