Valencia vs Malaga: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
The Footlab AI model makes Valencia the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Malaga. The most likely score is 1-1. If Valencia wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,381 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valencia vs Malaga?
On Elo ratings, Valencia has 2,041 points and Malaga 2,005.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Valencia vs Malaga
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Valencia
5-4-1- 9Hugo Duro
- 8Javi Guerra
- 23F. Ugrinic
- 2G. Rodríguez
- 19Dani Raba
- 18Pepelu
- 14José Gayà
- 24Pablo Carmine Maffeo Becerra
- 12J. de Haas
- 4M. Diakhaby
- 1S. Dimitrievski
Malaga
4-1-4-1- 9Chupe
- 10David Larrubia
- 22Dani Lorenzo
- 11Joaquín Muñoz
- 18Pablo Martínez
- 14Rafa Rodríguez
- 15Ángel Recio
- 31Rafita
- 3Puga
- 12José Salinas
- 1Alfonso Herrero
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 08:52 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valencia have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Malaga have 2, 8 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 0-5 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Levante(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Valencia wins, 1 draw, 1 Malaga win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2018 | Malaga 1-2 Valencia | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2017 | Valencia 5-0 Malaga | La Liga |
| Apr 22, 2017 | Malaga 2-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| Dec 4, 2016 | Valencia 2-2 Malaga | La Liga |
| Mar 2, 2016 | Malaga 1-2 Valencia | La Liga |
| Oct 17, 2015 | Valencia 3-0 Malaga | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Valencia score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Malaga score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Malaga | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Valencia sit 19th in La Liga (5 points from 8 matches) and Malaga sit 20th (4 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Valencia vs Malaga?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valencia vs Malaga?
- The Footlab AI model makes Valencia the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Malaga.
- Where and when is Valencia vs Malaga played?
- Valencia vs Malaga is played on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mestalla, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.