Atletico Madrid vs Racing Santander: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Racing Santander. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Racing Santander?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 196-point Elo edge (2,241 vs 2,045).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Madrid have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Racing Santander have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Atletico Madrid win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Racing Santander win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2012 | Racing Santander 0-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Sep 18, 2011 | Atletico Madrid 4-0 Racing Santander | La Liga |
| May 10, 2011 | Racing Santander 2-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Jan 3, 2011 | Atletico Madrid 0-0 Racing Santander | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Racing Santander vs Atletico Madrid on Feb 11, 2012
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Madrid score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Racing Santander score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Racing Santander | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Madrid sit 3rd in La Liga (4 points from 2 matches) and Racing Santander sit 14th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Racing Santander | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Madrid vs Racing Santander?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Racing Santander.
- Where and when is Atletico Madrid vs Racing Santander played?
- Atletico Madrid vs Racing Santander is played on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.