Athletic Club vs Villarreal: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
The Footlab model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Villarreal. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Villarreal?
Villarreal starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (2,175 vs 2,052).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athletic Club have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Villarreal have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Zaragoza(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burgos(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Levante(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lens(away) | 1-3 | Como Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Athletic Club win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Villarreal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Athletic Club 1-2 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Villarreal 1-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Villarreal 0-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Athletic Club 2-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Athletic Club 1-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Nov 5, 2023 | Villarreal 2-3 Athletic Club | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Athletic Club vs Villarreal on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Athletic Club score 2.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Villarreal score 2.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 2.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Villarreal | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Athletic Club sit 20th in La Liga (0 points from 1 matches) and Villarreal sit 9th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Villarreal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 20 | Athletic Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athletic Club vs Villarreal?
- The Footlab model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Villarreal.
- Where and when is Athletic Club vs Villarreal played?
- Athletic Club vs Villarreal is played on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at San Mamés Barria, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.