Ourense CF vs Gimnástica Torrelavega: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio O Couto, Ourense
The Footlab model makes Gimnástica Torrelavega the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Ourense CF. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ourense CF vs Gimnástica Torrelavega?
A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate Ourense CF (1,906) and Gimnástica Torrelavega (1,973).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ourense CF have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Gimnástica Torrelavega have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Lugo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontevedra(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Tenerife(home) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | CF Talavera(away) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 10, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(home) | 2-4 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bezana(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sestao River(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Basconia(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Barquereño(away) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Ourense CF win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Gimnástica Torrelavega win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2024 | Gimnástica Torrelavega 2-1 Ourense CF | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Ourense CF 2-1 Gimnástica Torrelavega | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2023 | Gimnástica Torrelavega 2-1 Ourense CF | Copa Federacion |
| Apr 9, 2023 | Gimnástica Torrelavega 1-0 Ourense CF | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 26, 2022 | Ourense CF 1-2 Gimnástica Torrelavega | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Gimnástica Torrelavega vs Ourense CF on Mar 10, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Ourense CF score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Gimnástica Torrelavega score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ourense CF | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Gimnástica Torrelavega | 2.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ourense CF vs Gimnástica Torrelavega?
- The Footlab model makes Gimnástica Torrelavega the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Ourense CF.
- Where and when is Ourense CF vs Gimnástica Torrelavega played?
- Ourense CF vs Gimnástica Torrelavega is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio O Couto, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.