Atlético Astorga vs Gernika: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 8Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Estadio La Eragudina, Astorga
The Footlab AI model makes Atlético Astorga the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Gernika. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atlético Astorga wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,577 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlético Astorga vs Gernika?
A very open match: only 1 Elo point separates Atlético Astorga (1,882) and Gernika (1,883).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Atlético Astorga vs Gernika
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Atlético Astorga
Not enough data to predict the Atlético Astorga lineup.
Gernika
Not enough data to predict the Gernika lineup.
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 05:50 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlético Astorga have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Gernika have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Compostela(away) | 1-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Ourense CF(home) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Amorebieta(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Sestao River(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(home) | 3-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés II(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sestao River(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Coruxo(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Llanera(home) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Arosa(away) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Atlético Astorga score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Gernika score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Astorga | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Gernika | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atlético Astorga sit 13th in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (6 points from 6 matches) and Gernika sit 8th (9 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gernika | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 9 |
| 13 | Atlético Astorga | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 6 |
A question about Atlético Astorga vs Gernika?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlético Astorga vs Gernika?
- The Footlab AI model makes Atlético Astorga the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Gernika.
- Where and when is Atlético Astorga vs Gernika played?
- Atlético Astorga vs Gernika is played on October 24, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Eragudina, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 24, 2026Eibar IIvsBergantiños
- Oct 24, 2026Deportivo Alavés IIvsRacing Santander II
- Oct 24, 2026AmorebietavsCoruxo
- Oct 24, 2026LlaneravsCompostela
- Oct 24, 2026Sestao RivervsArosa
- Oct 25, 2026Marino de LuancovsReal Oviedo II
- Oct 25, 2026Ourense CFvsGimnástica Torrelavega
- Oct 25, 2026BasconiavsPortugalete