Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 27Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Allianz Parque, São Paulo, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Sao Paulo. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
Palmeiras starts as the favourite with a 175-point Elo edge (2,075 vs 1,901).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Palmeiras have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Sao Paulo have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 2-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Cerro Porteno(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(away) | 2-3 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(home) | 3-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bolívar(home) | 3-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Coritiba(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Bolívar(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gremio(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Palmeiras win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Sao Paulo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Sao Paulo 0-1 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Palmeiras 2-1 Sao Paulo | Paulista - A1 |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Palmeiras 3-1 Sao Paulo | Paulista - A1 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Sao Paulo 2-3 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| May 11, 2025 | Palmeiras 1-0 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Palmeiras 1-0 Sao Paulo | Paulista - A1 |
Last archived meeting: Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Palmeiras score 2.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Sao Paulo score 1.2 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 2.0 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Sao Paulo | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2 | 12/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Palmeiras sit 1st in Serie A (48 points from 23 matches) and Sao Paulo sit 13th (27 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 19 | 48 |
| 13 | Sao Paulo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 26 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo?
- The Footlab model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Sao Paulo.
- Where and when is Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo played?
- Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo is played on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Allianz Parque, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.