Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 27Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul
The Footlab model makes Vasco DA Gama the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Gremio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Gremio (1,928) and Vasco DA Gama (1,924).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gremio have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Vasco DA Gama have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atletico-MG(away) | 0-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sao Paulo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 1-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Mirassol(away) | 1-1 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Bolívar(home) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Olimpia(away) | 4-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Santos(home) | 0-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Olimpia(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Bahia(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 3-1 | Copa Do Brasil |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Gremio win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Vasco DA Gama win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Gremio | Serie A |
| Nov 20, 2025 | Gremio 2-0 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Vasco DA Gama 1-1 Gremio | Serie A |
| Jul 28, 2024 | Gremio 1-0 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Gremio | Serie A |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Gremio 1-0 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gremio score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Vasco DA Gama score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Vasco DA Gama | 1.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gremio sit 15th in Serie A (25 points from 22 matches) and Vasco DA Gama sit 19th (22 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Gremio | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 24 | 30 | 25 |
| 19 | Vasco DA Gama | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 34 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama?
- The Footlab model makes Vasco DA Gama the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Gremio.
- Where and when is Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama played?
- Gremio vs Vasco DA Gama is played on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Arena do Grêmio, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.