Santos vs Cruzeiro: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 27Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Cruzeiro the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Santos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santos vs Cruzeiro?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Santos (1,955) and Cruzeiro (2,038).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santos have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Cruzeiro have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Macara(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(away) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Macara(home) | 2-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(home) | 0-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Remo(away) | 1-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 1-2 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 3-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Santos win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Cruzeiro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Cruzeiro 0-0 Santos | Serie A |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Santos 3-0 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Cruzeiro 1-2 Santos | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2023 | Santos 0-3 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| May 6, 2023 | Cruzeiro 2-1 Santos | Serie A |
| Nov 24, 2019 | Santos 4-1 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Santos score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Cruzeiro score 1.5 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santos | 1.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Cruzeiro | 1.5 | 0.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santos sit 14th in Serie A (25 points from 22 matches) and Cruzeiro sit 5th (39 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 39 |
| 14 | Santos | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 32 | 35 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santos vs Cruzeiro?
- The Footlab model makes Cruzeiro the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Santos.
- Where and when is Santos vs Cruzeiro played?
- Santos vs Cruzeiro is played on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.