Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius: prediction and stats
A LygaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas, Panevėžys
The Footlab model makes FK Zalgiris Vilnius the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Panevėžys. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Panevėžys (1,638) and FK Zalgiris Vilnius (1,732).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Panevėžys have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; FK Zalgiris Vilnius have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Suduva Marijampole(away) | 0-2 | A Lyga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Šiauliai(away) | 0-1 | A Lyga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | TransINVEST Vilnius(away) | 2-0 | A Lyga |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Džiugas Telšiai(home) | 1-1 | A Lyga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | FK Tobol Kostanay(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Džiugas Telšiai(home) | 2-0 | A Lyga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Banga(home) | 2-3 | A Lyga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(home) | 2-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Dinamo Tbilisi(home) | 7-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Panevėžys win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 16, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3-0 Panevėžys | A Lyga |
| May 3, 2026 | Panevėžys 2-1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| Feb 27, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius 4-1 Panevėžys | A Lyga |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Panevėžys 3-1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
| Aug 31, 2025 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2-1 Panevėžys | A Lyga |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Panevėžys 2-4 FK Zalgiris Vilnius | A Lyga |
Last archived meeting: FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Panevėžys on Jun 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Panevėžys score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; FK Zalgiris Vilnius score 2.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panevėžys | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 2.2 | 1.8 | 4 | 8/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Panevėžys sit 8th in A Lyga (23 points from 24 matches) and FK Zalgiris Vilnius sit 3rd (37 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 37 | 27 | 37 |
| 8 | Panevėžys | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 21 | 41 | 23 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
- The Footlab model makes FK Zalgiris Vilnius the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Panevėžys.
- Where and when is Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius played?
- Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas, in the A Lyga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.