Paraty vs Barra Mansa: prediction and stats
Carioca B2Group Stage - 11Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Barra Mansa the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Paraty. The most likely score is 1-1. If Barra Mansa wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.5% of the 3,664 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paraty vs Barra Mansa?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Paraty (1,320) and Barra Mansa (1,356).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Paraty vs Barra Mansa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Paraty
Not enough data to predict the Paraty lineup.
Barra Mansa
Not enough data to predict the Barra Mansa lineup.
Computed on October 27, 2026 at 12:19 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paraty have 1 win, 2 draws and 12 defeats; Barra Mansa have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2026 | Serra Macaense(away) | 2-6 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Santa Cruz RJ(home) | 0-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cardoso Moreira(away) | 1-6 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Rio de Janeiro(home) | 0-4 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Búzios(away) | 2-3 | Carioca B2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2026 | SE Belford Roxo(away) | 1-3 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Serra Macaense(home) | 0-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Santa Cruz RJ(away) | 0-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 5, 2026 | Cardoso Moreira(home) | 0-0 | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Rio de Janeiro(away) | 0-2 | Carioca B2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Paraty win, 0 draws, 1 Barra Mansa win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Barra Mansa 2-1 Paraty | Carioca B2 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Barra Mansa 1-2 Paraty | Carioca B2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Paraty score 0.9 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Barra Mansa score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraty | 0.9 | 2.8 | 0 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Barra Mansa | 1.1 | 1.5 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paraty sit 12th in Carioca B2 (0 points from 9 matches) and Barra Mansa sit 10th (7 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Barra Mansa | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 7 |
| 12 | Paraty | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
A question about Paraty vs Barra Mansa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paraty vs Barra Mansa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Barra Mansa the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Paraty.
- Where and when is Paraty vs Barra Mansa played?
- Paraty vs Barra Mansa is played on November 1, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC), in the Carioca B2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.