Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 10Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Parc des Princes, Paris
The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 69%, against 19% for a draw and 12% for Estac Troyes. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes?
Paris Saint Germain is a heavy favourite: 2,293 Elo points against 1,969 — a 325-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paris Saint Germain have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Estac Troyes have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lens(away) | 0-1 | Trophée des Champions |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Mallorca(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Panetolikos(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Auxerre(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Chasselay MDA(home) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Grenoble(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Paris Saint Germain win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Estac Troyes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2023 | Estac Troyes 1-3 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 29, 2022 | Paris Saint Germain 4-3 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| May 8, 2022 | Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 7, 2021 | Estac Troyes 1-2 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 3, 2018 | Estac Troyes 0-2 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 29, 2017 | Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Estac Troyes vs Paris Saint Germain on May 7, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Paris Saint Germain score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Estac Troyes score 2.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Estac Troyes | 2.1 | 0.8 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paris Saint Germain sit 9th in Ligue 1 (1 points from 1 matches) and Estac Troyes sit 13th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Estac Troyes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes?
- The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 69%, against 19% for a draw and 12% for Estac Troyes.
- Where and when is Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes played?
- Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes is played on November 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Parc des Princes, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.