Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 29Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg
The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Willem II. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,673 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar is a heavy favourite: 2,177 Elo points against 1,815, a 362-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Willem II
4-2-3-1- 9D. Haen
- 7J. Slory
- 19Uriel van Aalst
- 52T. Vilhena
- 32V. van Crooij
- 6C. Twigt
- 24N. Tjoe-A-On
- 3F. Stam
- 5H. ter Avest
- 23M. Dekker
- 26M. Delanghe
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1- 9M. Meerdink
- 6P. Koopmeiners
- 11R. Daal
- 21D. Kwakman
- 17V. Byskov
- 7Weslley Patati
- 4L. Schouten
- 22E. Dijkstra
- 5M. Chávez
- 29W. Hoedt
- 28J. De Busser
Computed on October 27, 2026 at 06:30 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Willem II have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; AZ Alkmaar have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Cambuur(home) | 1-6 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(away) | 2-3 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Twente(home) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia(away) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Hapoel Beer Sheva(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Willem II win, 2 draws, 3 AZ Alkmaar wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Willem II 0-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Nov 10, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 1-2 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| Mar 20, 2022 | Willem II 2-2 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Dec 18, 2021 | AZ Alkmaar 4-1 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| Apr 3, 2021 | Willem II 0-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II on Sep 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Willem II score 1.2 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; AZ Alkmaar score 2.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II | 1.2 | 2.5 | 1 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Willem II sit 18th in Eredivisie (2 points from 10 matches) and AZ Alkmaar sit 5th (20 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 20 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 2 |
A question about Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar?
- The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 66%, against 19% for a draw and 15% for Willem II.
- Where and when is Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar played?
- Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Koning Willem II Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.