PSV Eindhoven vs Ajax: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
The Footlab AI model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Ajax. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win PSV Eindhoven vs Ajax?
PSV Eindhoven starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (2,205 vs 2,100).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for PSV Eindhoven vs Ajax
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
PSV Eindhoven
4-2-3-1- 21S. Mijnans
- 20G. Til
- 24K. Sano
- 7R. van Bommel
- 5I. Perišić
- 31N. Fernandez
- 4A. Obispo
- 8S. Dest
- 17Mauro Júnior
- 2L. Geertruida
- 32M. Kovář
Ajax
4-3-3- 10O. Gloukh
- 99T. Arokodare
- 11V. Tsygankov
- 8J. Brandt
- 24J. Mokio
- 4S. Amrabat
- 15Y. Baas
- 6T. Kehrer
- 2Lucas Rosa
- 5O. Wijndal
- 1M. ter Stegen
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:27 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, PSV Eindhoven have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Ajax have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | RB Leipzig(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Heerenveen(home) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Twente(away) | 2-3 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(home) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 PSV Eindhoven win, 3 draws, 2 Ajax wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | Ajax 1-3 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| May 2, 2026 | Ajax 2-2 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Sep 21, 2025 | PSV Eindhoven 2-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Mar 30, 2025 | PSV Eindhoven 0-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Ajax 3-2 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Ajax 1-1 PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
PSV Eindhoven score 2.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Ajax score 3.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 2.7 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Ajax | 3.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
PSV Eindhoven sit 2nd in Eredivisie (19 points from 8 matches) and Ajax sit 5th (15 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 10 | 19 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 15 |
A question about PSV Eindhoven vs Ajax?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for PSV Eindhoven vs Ajax?
- The Footlab AI model makes PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Ajax.
- Where and when is PSV Eindhoven vs Ajax played?
- PSV Eindhoven vs Ajax is played on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Philips Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.