Utrecht vs Ajax: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 29Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Utrecht. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ajax wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,395 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Utrecht vs Ajax?
Ajax starts as the favourite with a 134-point Elo edge (2,100 vs 1,967).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Utrecht vs Ajax
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Utrecht
3-4-3- 20D. de Wit
- 10Y. Cathline
- 11Ángel Alarcón
- 92A. Zagré
- 23N. Vesterlund
- 34D. van den Berg
- 8J. van Overeem
- 2S. Horemans
- 3M. Didden
- 5N. Panagiotou
- 1V. Barkas
Ajax
4-3-3- 10O. Gloukh
- 99T. Arokodare
- 11V. Tsygankov
- 8J. Brandt
- 24J. Mokio
- 4S. Amrabat
- 15Y. Baas
- 6T. Kehrer
- 2Lucas Rosa
- 5O. Wijndal
- 1M. ter Stegen
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:27 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Utrecht have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Ajax have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 0-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Excelsior(away) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(home) | 3-3 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 30, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-6 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 5-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(home) | 1-3 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Utrecht wins, 2 draws, 1 Ajax win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Ajax 0-0 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| May 10, 2026 | Ajax 1-2 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Utrecht 2-1 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Utrecht 4-0 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| Dec 4, 2024 | Ajax 2-2 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Ajax 2-0 Utrecht | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Utrecht score 1.5 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Ajax score 3.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utrecht | 1.5 | 2.2 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Ajax | 3.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Utrecht sit 13th in Eredivisie (8 points from 8 matches) and Ajax sit 5th (15 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 15 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 25 | 8 |
A question about Utrecht vs Ajax?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Utrecht vs Ajax?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ajax the favourite at 45%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Utrecht.
- Where and when is Utrecht vs Ajax played?
- Utrecht vs Ajax is played on April 11, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Galgenwaard, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.