Pontardawe Town vs Baglan Dragons: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Parc Ynysderw, Swansea
The Footlab model makes Pontardawe Town the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pontardawe Town vs Baglan Dragons?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Pontardawe Town (1,467) and Baglan Dragons (1,472).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontardawe Town have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Baglan Dragons have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Afan Lido(away) | 0-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 0-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(away) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caerphilly Athletic(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Baglan Dragons(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Llantwit Major(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Swansea University(home) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Pontardawe Town win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Baglan Dragons win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2024 | Baglan Dragons 1-2 Pontardawe Town | FAW Championship |
| Jul 29, 2023 | Pontardawe Town 1-2 Baglan Dragons | FAW Championship |
| Sep 17, 2022 | Baglan Dragons 1-1 Pontardawe Town | Welsh Cup |
Last archived meeting: Baglan Dragons vs Pontardawe Town on Apr 20, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Pontardawe Town score 1.3 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Baglan Dragons score 0.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontardawe Town | 1.3 | 2.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Baglan Dragons | 0.5 | 2.1 | 4 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pontardawe Town sit 13th in FAW Championship (3 points from 4 matches) and Baglan Dragons sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 13 | Pontardawe Town | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pontardawe Town vs Baglan Dragons?
- The Footlab model makes Pontardawe Town the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Baglan Dragons.
- Where and when is Pontardawe Town vs Baglan Dragons played?
- Pontardawe Town vs Baglan Dragons is played on November 21, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Parc Ynysderw, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 20, 2026Caerphilly Athleticvsllanelli AFC
- Nov 20, 2026Swansea UniversityvsTrethomas Bluebirds
- Nov 20, 2026Pontypridd TownvsCarmarthen Town
- Nov 20, 2026Caerau (Ely)vsNewport City
- Nov 21, 2026Treowen StarsvsAfan Lido
- Nov 21, 2026Cardiff DraconiansvsAberystwyth Town
- Nov 21, 2026Ynyshir AlbionsvsLlantwit Major