Pontypridd Town vs Carmarthen Town: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 15Kick-off on November 20, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)USW Sports Park, Treforest, Pontypridd
The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 40%, against 22% for a draw and 38% for Pontypridd Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pontypridd Town vs Carmarthen Town?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Pontypridd Town (1,600) and Carmarthen Town (1,616).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pontypridd Town have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Carmarthen Town have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 4-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 0-0 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 2-4 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newport City(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(home) | 4-3 | FAW Championship |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Treowen Stars(away) | 1-4 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Pontypridd Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Carmarthen Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Carmarthen Town 0-1 Pontypridd Town | FAW Championship |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Pontypridd Town 3-1 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Mar 7, 2025 | Pontypridd Town 1-3 Carmarthen Town | FAW Championship |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Carmarthen Town 0-1 Pontypridd Town | FAW Championship |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Carmarthen Town 4-2 Pontypridd Town | Welsh Cup |
| Aug 6, 2022 | Pontypridd Town 2-0 Carmarthen Town | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Carmarthen Town vs Pontypridd Town on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Pontypridd Town score 2.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Carmarthen Town score 2.5 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontypridd Town | 2.1 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Carmarthen Town | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pontypridd Town sit 2nd in FAW Championship (12 points from 4 matches) and Carmarthen Town sit 4th (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pontypridd Town vs Carmarthen Town?
- The Footlab model makes Carmarthen Town the favourite at 40%, against 22% for a draw and 38% for Pontypridd Town.
- Where and when is Pontypridd Town vs Carmarthen Town played?
- Pontypridd Town vs Carmarthen Town is played on November 20, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at USW Sports Park, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 20, 2026Swansea UniversityvsTrethomas Bluebirds
- Nov 20, 2026Caerphilly Athleticvsllanelli AFC
- Nov 20, 2026Caerau (Ely)vsNewport City
- Nov 21, 2026Treowen StarsvsAfan Lido
- Nov 21, 2026Cardiff DraconiansvsAberystwyth Town
- Nov 21, 2026Pontardawe TownvsBaglan Dragons
- Nov 21, 2026Ynyshir AlbionsvsLlantwit Major