Caerphilly Athletic vs Baglan Dragons: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 16Kick-off on November 27, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Caerphilly Athletic the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-1. If Caerphilly Athletic wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caerphilly Athletic vs Baglan Dragons?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Caerphilly Athletic (1,560) and Baglan Dragons (1,547).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caerphilly Athletic vs Baglan Dragons
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caerphilly Athletic
Not enough data to predict the Caerphilly Athletic lineup.
Baglan Dragons
Not enough data to predict the Baglan Dragons lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:46 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 14 matches in all competitions, Caerphilly Athletic have 4 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Baglan Dragons have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Swansea University(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(away) | 2-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Carmarthen Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-1 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Caerphilly Athletic win, 0 draws, 0 Baglan Dragons wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Baglan Dragons 0-1 Caerphilly Athletic | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Baglan Dragons vs Caerphilly Athletic on Aug 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caerphilly Athletic score 1.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 14; Baglan Dragons score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerphilly Athletic | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2 | 10/14 | 11/14 |
| Baglan Dragons | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 14 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caerphilly Athletic sit 11th in FAW Championship (11 points from 10 matches) and Baglan Dragons sit 5th (17 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 17 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 11 |
A question about Caerphilly Athletic vs Baglan Dragons?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caerphilly Athletic vs Baglan Dragons?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerphilly Athletic the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Baglan Dragons.
- Where and when is Caerphilly Athletic vs Baglan Dragons played?
- Caerphilly Athletic vs Baglan Dragons is played on November 27, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Nov 28, 2026Llantwit MajorvsTreowen Stars
- Nov 28, 2026Trethomas BluebirdsvsYnyshir Albions
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