Where and when is Caerphilly Athletic vs Baglan Dragons played?

Caerphilly Athletic vs Baglan Dragons is played on November 27, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Caerphilly Athletic vs Baglan Dragons: prediction and stats

FAW ChampionshipSouth - 16Kick-off on November 27, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)

Caerphilly Athletic

Baglan Dragons

The Footlab model makes Caerphilly Athletic the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Baglan Dragons. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Caerphilly Athletic vs Baglan Dragons?

A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Caerphilly Athletic (1,506) and Baglan Dragons (1,472).

Caerphilly Athletic win51 %

Draw27 %

Baglan Dragons win22 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 8 matches in all competitions, Caerphilly Athletic have 2 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Baglan Dragons have 3, 3 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Caerphilly Athletic
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Ynyshir Albions(home)	2-1	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Treowen Stars(away)	0-3	FAW Championship
Aug 7, 2026	Cardiff Draconians(home)	0-0	FAW Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Pontardawe Town(away)	0-3	FAW Championship
Sep 20, 2025	Caldicot Town(home)	1-3	Welsh Cup

Baglan Dragons
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Newport City(away)	1-0	FAW Championship
Aug 15, 2026	Llantwit Major(away)	1-0	FAW Championship
Aug 9, 2026	Swansea University(home)	0-3	FAW Championship
Jul 31, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(away)	0-0	FAW Championship
Apr 18, 2026	Trethomas Bluebirds(home)	1-1	FAW Championship

How many goals should we expect?

Caerphilly Athletic score 1.3 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 8; Baglan Dragons score 0.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Caerphilly Athletic	1.3	2.0	1	5/8	6/8
Baglan Dragons	0.5	2.1	4	4/15	7/15

Over the last 8 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Caerphilly Athletic sit 12th in FAW Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Baglan Dragons sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Baglan Dragons	4	2	1	1	2	3	7
12	Caerphilly Athletic	4	1	1	2	2	7	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Caerphilly Athletic vs Baglan Dragons?: The Footlab model makes Caerphilly Athletic the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Baglan Dragons.
Where and when is Caerphilly Athletic vs Baglan Dragons played?: Caerphilly Athletic vs Baglan Dragons is played on November 27, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.