Ponferradina vs Real Avilés: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 7Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Toralín, Ponferrada
The Footlab model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Real Avilés. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ponferradina vs Real Avilés?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate Ponferradina (1,968) and Real Avilés (1,868).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ponferradina have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Real Avilés have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Real Madrid II(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Oviedo(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(away) | 1-4 | Primera División RFEF - Play Offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mosconia(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Racing Ferrol(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Racing Santander II(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Ponferradina win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Real Avilés win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ponferradina 1-1 Real Avilés | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Ponferradina 3-1 Real Avilés | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Real Avilés 0-3 Ponferradina | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Aug 2, 2023 | Real Avilés 0-0 Ponferradina | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Ponferradina vs Real Avilés on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ponferradina score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Real Avilés score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina | 1.1 | 1.3 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Real Avilés | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ponferradina sit 4th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (60 points from 38 matches) and Real Avilés sit 14th (44 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ponferradina | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 43 | 33 | 60 |
| 14 | Real Avilés | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 55 | 67 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ponferradina vs Real Avilés?
- The Footlab model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Real Avilés.
- Where and when is Ponferradina vs Real Avilés played?
- Ponferradina vs Real Avilés is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Toralín, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.