Portugalete vs Sestao River: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Florida, Portugalete
The Footlab model makes Portugalete the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Sestao River. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Portugalete vs Sestao River?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Portugalete (1,942) and Sestao River (1,892).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Portugalete have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Sestao River have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Barakaldo(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 17, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Athletic Club II(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Utebo(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Amorebieta(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Portugalete win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Sestao River win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2020 | Sestao River 2-2 Portugalete | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 22, 2019 | Portugalete 4-1 Sestao River | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Sestao River vs Portugalete on Feb 15, 2020
How many goals should we expect?
Portugalete score 1.8 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sestao River score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portugalete | 1.8 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Sestao River | 1.0 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Portugalete vs Sestao River?
- The Footlab model makes Portugalete the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Sestao River.
- Where and when is Portugalete vs Sestao River played?
- Portugalete vs Sestao River is played on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Florida, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.