Ourense CF vs Bergantiños: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio O Couto, Ourense
The Footlab model makes Ourense CF the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Bergantiños. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ourense CF vs Bergantiños?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Ourense CF (1,907) and Bergantiños (1,882).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ourense CF have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Bergantiños have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Lugo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pontevedra(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Tenerife(home) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | CF Talavera(away) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 10, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(home) | 2-4 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Sámano(away) | 5-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | UD Ourense(home) | 1-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Real Oviedo II(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sarriana(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Real Valladolid II(away) | 4-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 4 Ourense CF win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Bergantiños win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2025 | Bergantiños 0-2 Ourense CF | Copa Federacion |
| Apr 2, 2023 | Ourense CF 1-0 Bergantiños | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 19, 2022 | Bergantiños 1-0 Ourense CF | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Jan 19, 2020 | Bergantiños 0-3 Ourense CF | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Aug 25, 2019 | Ourense CF 3-0 Bergantiños | Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Bergantiños vs Ourense CF on Oct 1, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Ourense CF score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Bergantiños score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ourense CF | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Bergantiños | 1.5 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bergantiños | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 37 | 48 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ourense CF vs Bergantiños?
- The Footlab model makes Ourense CF the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Bergantiños.
- Where and when is Ourense CF vs Bergantiños played?
- Ourense CF vs Bergantiños is played on March 7, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio O Couto, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.