Derby vs Sheffield Utd: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 24Kick-off on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Pride Park Stadium, Derby
The Footlab AI model makes Sheffield Utd the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Derby. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sheffield Utd wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
A very open match: only 76 Elo points separate Derby (1,863) and Sheffield Utd (1,939).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derby vs Sheffield Utd
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 20A. Mowatt
- 4D. Ozoh
- 16M. Fuseini
- 6S. Langås
- 28D. Sanderson
- 26R. Hedges
- 23J. Ward
- 31J. Vickers
Sheffield Utd
4-4-2- 45P. Bamford
- 9T. Cannon
- 42Sydie Peck
- 22B. Brereton
- 7J. Rothwell
- 19T. Chong
- 5J. Tanganga
- 8H. Choudhury
- 15L. Kitching
- 3S. McCallum
- 1M. Cooper
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:34 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derby have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Sheffield Utd have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | QPR(away) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Portsmouth(away) | 2-3 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 3-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Derby wins, 0 draws, 4 Sheffield Utd wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Derby 1-2 Sheffield Utd | Championship |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Sheffield Utd 1-3 Derby | Championship |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Derby 0-1 Sheffield Utd | Championship |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Sheffield Utd 1-0 Derby | Championship |
| Jul 29, 2023 | Derby 1-3 Sheffield Utd | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 15, 2022 | Derby 2-0 Sheffield Utd | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Derby vs Sheffield Utd on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Derby score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Sheffield Utd score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Sheffield Utd | 1.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derby sit 23rd in Championship (6 points from 10 matches) and Sheffield Utd sit 15th (12 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 12 |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 6 |
A question about Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derby vs Sheffield Utd?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sheffield Utd the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Derby.
- Where and when is Derby vs Sheffield Utd played?
- Derby vs Sheffield Utd is played on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Pride Park Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.