Match

Progreso vs Defensor Sporting: prediction and stats

Primera DivisiónClausura - 13Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo

ProgresoDefensor Sporting

The Footlab AI model makes Progreso the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Defensor Sporting. The most likely score is 1-1. If Progreso wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,428 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?

A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Progreso (1,719) and Defensor Sporting (1,752).

46%29%25%
Progreso winDrawDefensor Sporting win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Progreso

4-2-3-1
  1. 7A. Ocampo
  1. 5A. Pinheiro
  2. 16G. Trasante
  3. 25R. Cristóbal
  4. 21S. Bruschi
  5. 18G. Silva
  1. 40A. Cougo
  2. 24E. Álvarez
  3. 13H. Carroso
  4. 6M. Saravia
  1. 1R. Bacchia

Defensor Sporting

4-2-3-1
  1. 26B. Montenegro
  1. 5G. Barrios
  2. 8Nicolás Andrés Wunsch Tomás
  3. 24L. de los Santos
  4. 22A. Torterolo
  5. 29T. Pozzo
  1. 3G. de los Santos
  2. 11L. Agazzi
  3. 4G. Rodriguez
  4. 2E. Elizalde
  1. 12K. Dawson

Computed on October 25, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Progreso have 6 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; Defensor Sporting have 2, 5 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Progreso
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 25, 2026Wanderers(away)1-0Primera División
Oct 17, 2026Juventud(home)2-0Primera División
Oct 10, 2026Penarol(away)1-1Primera División
Oct 3, 2026Liverpool Montevideo(away)2-3Primera División
Sep 26, 2026Racing Montevideo(home)2-1Primera División
Defensor Sporting
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 24, 2026Racing Montevideo(home)3-3Primera División
Oct 17, 2026Boston River(away)0-1Primera División
Oct 10, 2026Cerro(home)2-3Primera División
Oct 3, 2026Albion FC(away)2-3Primera División
Sep 30, 2026Plaza Colonia(home)0-1Copa Uruguay

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Progreso win, 2 draws, 3 Defensor Sporting wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 27, 2026Defensor Sporting 1-0 ProgresoPrimera División
Jan 12, 2026Defensor Sporting 0-0 ProgresoCopa De La Liga Auf
Oct 19, 2025Progreso 2-3 Defensor SportingPrimera División - Clausura
Apr 20, 2025Defensor Sporting 1-2 ProgresoPrimera División
Nov 14, 2024Defensor Sporting 3-0 ProgresoPrimera División - Clausura
Jun 15, 2024Defensor Sporting 1-1 ProgresoPrimera División

Last archived meeting: Defensor Sporting vs Progreso on Apr 27, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Progreso score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Defensor Sporting score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Progreso0.91.246/155/15
Defensor Sporting1.01.738/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Progreso sit 9th in Primera División (16 points from 11 matches) and Defensor Sporting sit 14th (9 points from 12 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
9Progreso11515121316
14Defensor Sporting1223714239

A question about Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
The Footlab AI model makes Progreso the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Defensor Sporting.
Where and when is Progreso vs Defensor Sporting played?
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting is played on November 1, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Parque Abraham Paladino, in the Primera División.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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