Progresso vs Prato: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Progresso, Castel Maggiore
The Footlab AI model makes Prato the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Progresso. The most likely score is 1-1. If Prato wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Progresso vs Prato?
Prato starts as the favourite with a 207-point Elo edge (1,834 vs 1,628).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Progresso vs Prato
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Progresso
Not enough data to predict the Progresso lineup.
Prato
Not enough data to predict the Prato lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 05:49 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Progresso have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Prato have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Robur Siena(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Rondinella(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Montevarchi Calcio(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Seravezza(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Lucchese(away) | 0-5 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Donato Tavarnelle(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Terranuova Traiana(away) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Terranuova Traiana(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone E |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sasso Marconi Zola(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone E |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Progresso wins, 2 draws, 2 Prato wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2025 | Prato 0-2 Progresso | Serie D - Girone D |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Progresso 0-0 Prato | Serie D - Girone D |
| Feb 4, 2024 | Prato 1-0 Progresso | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Progresso 0-3 Prato | Serie D - Girone D |
| Apr 14, 2022 | Prato 1-1 Progresso | Serie D - Girone D |
| Dec 4, 2021 | Progresso 3-1 Prato | Serie D - Girone D |
How many goals should we expect?
Progresso score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Prato score 1.7 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progresso | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Prato | 1.7 | 0.5 | 9 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Progresso sit 16th in Serie D - Girone E (3 points from 6 matches) and Prato sit 2nd (14 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Prato | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 14 |
| 16 | Progresso | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 3 |
A question about Progresso vs Prato?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Progresso vs Prato?
- The Footlab AI model makes Prato the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Progresso.
- Where and when is Progresso vs Prato played?
- Progresso vs Prato is played on December 20, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Progresso, in the Serie D - Girone E.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 20, 2026TernanavsTerranuova Traiana
- Dec 20, 2026LucchesevsScandicci
- Dec 20, 2026Robur SienavsGavorrano
- Dec 20, 2026Ghivizzano Borgo MozzanovsSasso Marconi Zola
- Dec 20, 2026SeravezzavsTau Altopascio
- Dec 20, 2026GrassinavsSan Donato Tavarnelle
- Dec 20, 2026Montevarchi CalciovsMezzolara
- Dec 20, 2026RondinellavsFlaminia