Match

Progresso vs Prato: prediction and stats

Serie D - Girone EGroup E - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Progresso, Castel Maggiore

ProgressoPrato

The Footlab model makes Prato the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Progresso. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Progresso vs Prato?

Prato starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,786 vs 1,681).

Progresso win33 %
Draw30 %
Prato win37 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Progresso have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Prato have 11, 2 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Progresso
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
May 3, 2026Sasso Marconi Zola(home)4-1Serie D - Girone D
Apr 26, 2026Sant'Angelo(away)1-1Serie D - Girone D
Apr 19, 2026Lentigione(away)2-1Serie D - Girone D
Apr 12, 2026Correggese(home)1-1Serie D - Girone D
Apr 2, 2026Tuttocuoio(away)2-0Serie D - Girone D
Prato
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
May 17, 2026Seravezza(home)1-2Serie D - Girone E
May 10, 2026Robur Siena(home)3-1Serie D - Girone E
May 3, 2026Montevarchi Calcio(home)1-0Serie D - Girone E
Apr 26, 2026Sporting Trestina(away)2-0Serie D - Girone E
Apr 19, 2026Grosseto(home)1-0Serie D - Girone E

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Progresso win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Prato win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 27, 2025Prato 0-2 ProgressoSerie D - Girone D
Dec 15, 2024Progresso 0-0 PratoSerie D - Girone D
Feb 4, 2024Prato 1-0 ProgressoSerie D - Girone D
Oct 8, 2023Progresso 0-3 PratoSerie D - Girone D
Apr 14, 2022Prato 1-1 ProgressoSerie D - Girone D
Dec 4, 2021Progresso 3-1 PratoSerie D - Girone D

Last archived meeting: Prato vs Progresso on Apr 27, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Progresso score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Prato score 1.6 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Progresso1.01.337/156/15
Prato1.60.6105/156/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Prato342059492963

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Progresso vs Prato?
The Footlab model makes Prato the favourite at 37%, against 30% for a draw and 33% for Progresso.
Where and when is Progresso vs Prato played?
Progresso vs Prato is played on December 20, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Progresso, in the Serie D - Girone E.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Progresso and Prato

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