Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Częstochowa
The Footlab model makes Raków Częstochowa the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Pogon Szczecin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Raków Częstochowa (2,034) and Pogon Szczecin (1,993).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Raków Częstochowa have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Pogon Szczecin have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cracovia Krakow(away) | 1-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Hammarby FF(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Hammarby FF(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Slask Wroclaw(away) | 1-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Wisla Krakow(home) | 2-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Motor Lublin(home) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Cracovia Krakow(away) | 2-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Legia Warszawa(home) | 0-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Raków Częstochowa win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Pogon Szczecin win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Pogon Szczecin 2-0 Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Pogon Szczecin 1-0 Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Raków Częstochowa 1-0 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| May 11, 2024 | Raków Częstochowa 2-1 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Pogon Szczecin 1-1 Raków Częstochowa | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Raków Częstochowa score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Pogon Szczecin score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raków Częstochowa | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Pogon Szczecin | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Raków Częstochowa sit 18th in Ekstraklasa (0 points from 3 matches) and Pogon Szczecin sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Pogon Szczecin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
| 18 | Raków Częstochowa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin?
- The Footlab model makes Raków Częstochowa the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Pogon Szczecin.
- Where and when is Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin played?
- Raków Częstochowa vs Pogon Szczecin is played on October 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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