Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Enea Stadion, Poznań
The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 68%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Pogon Szczecin. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?
Lech Poznan starts as the favourite with a 148-point Elo edge (2,141 vs 1,993).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lech Poznan have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Pogon Szczecin have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Thun(home) | 7-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(home) | 3-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wieczysta Kraków(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Wisla Krakow(home) | 2-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Motor Lublin(home) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Cracovia Krakow(away) | 2-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Legia Warszawa(home) | 0-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Lech Poznan win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Pogon Szczecin win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Pogon Szczecin 1-2 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Lech Poznan 2-2 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Pogon Szczecin 0-3 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Lech Poznan 2-0 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Lech Poznan 1-0 Pogon Szczecin | Ekstraklasa |
| Feb 27, 2024 | Lech Poznan 0-1 Pogon Szczecin | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Pogon Szczecin vs Lech Poznan on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lech Poznan score 2.6 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Pogon Szczecin score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 2.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Pogon Szczecin | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lech Poznan sit 4th in Ekstraklasa (7 points from 3 matches) and Pogon Szczecin sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Pogon Szczecin | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin?
- The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 68%, against 19% for a draw and 13% for Pogon Szczecin.
- Where and when is Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin played?
- Lech Poznan vs Pogon Szczecin is played on November 28, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Enea Stadion, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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