Rayo Vallecano vs Malaga: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Malaga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Malaga?
A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Rayo Vallecano (2,096) and Malaga (2,055).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rayo Vallecano have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Malaga have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Charleroi(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 0-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Al-Arabi SC(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Al-Ittihad FC(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Rayo Vallecano win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Malaga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2021 | Malaga 2-0 Rayo Vallecano | Segunda División |
| Oct 3, 2020 | Rayo Vallecano 4-0 Malaga | Segunda División |
| Jul 2, 2020 | Rayo Vallecano 0-0 Malaga | Segunda División |
| Sep 17, 2019 | Malaga 1-1 Rayo Vallecano | Segunda División |
| Apr 20, 2016 | Malaga 1-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Dec 13, 2015 | Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Malaga | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Malaga vs Rayo Vallecano on Feb 21, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Rayo Vallecano score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Malaga score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Malaga | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rayo Vallecano sit 13th in La Liga (1 points from 2 matches) and Malaga sit 19th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 19 | Malaga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Malaga?
- The Footlab model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Malaga.
- Where and when is Rayo Vallecano vs Malaga played?
- Rayo Vallecano vs Malaga is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Vallecas, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.