Rayo Vallecano vs Malaga: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Malaga. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rayo Vallecano wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Malaga?
On Elo ratings, Rayo Vallecano has 2,037 points and Malaga 1,962.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rayo Vallecano vs Malaga
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rayo Vallecano
4-3-3- 10Sergio Camello
- 18Álvaro García
- 19Jorge de Frutos
- 8Unai López
- 6P. Ciss
- 23Óscar Valentín
- 24F. Lejeune
- 2A. Rațiu
- 17Adrià Pedrosa
- 15Mujaid Sadick
- 25E. Audero
Malaga
4-1-4-1- 9Chupe
- 10David Larrubia
- 22Dani Lorenzo
- 11Joaquín Muñoz
- 18Pablo Martínez
- 14Rafa Rodríguez
- 15Ángel Recio
- 31Rafita
- 3Puga
- 12José Salinas
- 1Alfonso Herrero
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 05:27 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rayo Vallecano have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Malaga have 2, 8 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Osasuna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 1-4 | La Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 2-5 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Getafe(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Levante(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Rayo Vallecano win, 3 draws, 2 Malaga wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2021 | Malaga 2-0 Rayo Vallecano | Segunda División |
| Oct 3, 2020 | Rayo Vallecano 4-0 Malaga | Segunda División |
| Jul 2, 2020 | Rayo Vallecano 0-0 Malaga | Segunda División |
| Sep 17, 2019 | Malaga 1-1 Rayo Vallecano | Segunda División |
| Apr 20, 2016 | Malaga 1-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Dec 13, 2015 | Rayo Vallecano 1-2 Malaga | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Malaga vs Rayo Vallecano on Feb 21, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Malaga score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Malaga | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rayo Vallecano sit 13th in La Liga (8 points from 7 matches) and Malaga sit 20th (4 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Rayo Vallecano vs Malaga?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Malaga?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 57%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Malaga.
- Where and when is Rayo Vallecano vs Malaga played?
- Rayo Vallecano vs Malaga is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Vallecas, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.