Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Rayo Vallecano. The most likely score is 1-1. If Atletico Madrid wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,495 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 174-point Elo edge (2,276 vs 2,102).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rayo Vallecano
4-3-3- 10Sergio Camello
- 18Álvaro García
- 19Jorge de Frutos
- 8Unai López
- 6P. Ciss
- 23Óscar Valentín
- 24F. Lejeune
- 2A. Rațiu
- 17Adrià Pedrosa
- 15Mujaid Sadick
- 25E. Audero
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2- 7Lee Kang-In
- 15J. David
- 20G. Simeone
- 5J. Cardoso
- 8Pablo Barrios
- 10Álex Baena
- 14Marcos Llorente
- 22Álex Grimaldo
- 21C. Romero
- 17D. Hancko
- 13J. Oblak
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 07:16 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rayo Vallecano have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Osasuna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 1-4 | La Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 2-5 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 4-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Real Sociedad(away) | 3-0 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Rayo Vallecano win, 1 draw, 4 Atletico Madrid wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 3-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 3-2 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 3-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Jan 31, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Aug 28, 2023 | Rayo Vallecano 0-7 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Atletico Madrid | 2.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rayo Vallecano sit 13th in La Liga (8 points from 7 matches) and Atletico Madrid sit 2nd (19 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 19 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
A question about Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid?
- The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Rayo Vallecano.
- Where and when is Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid played?
- Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid is played on January 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Vallecas, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.