Real Murcia vs Alcorcon: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 12Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, Murcia
The Footlab model makes Real Murcia the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Alcorcon. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Murcia vs Alcorcon?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Real Murcia (1,930) and Alcorcon (1,894).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Murcia have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Alcorcon have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Albacete(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Cieza(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Port Vale(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 3-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Unionistas de Salamanca(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Mérida AD(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Rayo Majadahonda(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Getafe II(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Sevilla Atletico(away) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Real Murcia win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Alcorcon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Alcorcon 1-0 Real Murcia | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Real Murcia 2-1 Alcorcon | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Alcorcon 2-1 Real Murcia | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Real Murcia 3-1 Alcorcon | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Aug 10, 2022 | Real Murcia 1-1 Alcorcon | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Alcorcon vs Real Murcia on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Murcia score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Alcorcon score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Murcia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Alcorcon | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Murcia sit 10th in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (52 points from 38 matches) and Alcorcon sit 11th (51 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Real Murcia | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 43 | 40 | 52 |
| 11 | Alcorcon | 38 | 12 | 15 | 11 | 44 | 38 | 51 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Murcia vs Alcorcon?
- The Footlab model makes Real Murcia the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Alcorcon.
- Where and when is Real Murcia vs Alcorcon played?
- Real Murcia vs Alcorcon is played on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.