Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Atletico Madrid. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?
Barcelona starts as the favourite with a 138-point Elo edge (2,383 vs 2,246).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Madrid have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Barcelona have 11, 1 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Elche(away) | 5-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Al Ahly(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Basel 1893(away) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Atletico Madrid win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Barcelona win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Barcelona 0-2 Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Barcelona 3-0 Atletico Madrid | Copa del Rey |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 4-0 Barcelona | Copa del Rey |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Barcelona 3-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona on Apr 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Madrid score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Barcelona score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Barcelona | 2.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Madrid sit 3rd in La Liga (4 points from 2 matches) and Barcelona sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?
- The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Atletico Madrid.
- Where and when is Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona played?
- Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona is played on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.