Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Atletico Madrid. The most likely score is 1-1. If Barcelona wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 3,024 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?
Barcelona starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (2,439 vs 2,295).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2- 15J. David
- 11A. Lookman
- 20G. Simeone
- 8Pablo Barrios
- 7Lee Kang-In
- 23M. Hjulmand
- 17D. Hancko
- 21C. Romero
- 18Marc Pubill
- 14Marcos Llorente
- 13J. Oblak
Barcelona
4-2-3-1- 9Gabriel Jesus
- 10Lamine Yamal
- 8Pedri
- 16Rodri
- 17A. Gordon
- 7Fermín
- 18Gerard Martín
- 5Pau Cubarsí Paredes
- 12X. Espart
- 23J. Koundé
- 1Joan García
Known absences
RaphinhaOut · Hamstring injury
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 08:35 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Madrid have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Barcelona have 13, 0 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 2-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 5-2 | La Liga |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 4-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Atletico Madrid wins, 0 draws, 4 Barcelona wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Barcelona 0-2 Atletico Madrid | UEFA Champions League |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Barcelona 3-0 Atletico Madrid | Copa del Rey |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 4-0 Barcelona | Copa del Rey |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Barcelona 3-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona on Apr 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Madrid score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Barcelona score 3.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.8 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Barcelona | 3.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Madrid sit 2nd in La Liga (22 points from 9 matches) and Barcelona sit 1st (27 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 9 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 22 |
A question about Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona?
- The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Atletico Madrid.
- Where and when is Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona played?
- Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona is played on November 8, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.