Ried vs TSV Hartberg: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Innviertel Arena, Ried Im Innkreis
The Footlab model makes Ried the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for TSV Hartberg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Ried (1,911) and TSV Hartberg (1,944).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ried have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; TSV Hartberg have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Grazer AK(home) | 1-0 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Lask Linz(away) | 1-4 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(home) | 1-2 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Austria Lustenau(away) | 1-1 | Bundesliga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Dornbirn(away) | 5-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | SCR Altach(away) | 2-1 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Austria Vienna(home) | 0-2 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sturm Graz(home) | 0-2 | Bundesliga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 0-1 | Bundesliga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Imst(away) | 3-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Ried win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 TSV Hartberg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | TSV Hartberg 2-0 Ried | Bundesliga |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Ried 0-2 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| May 27, 2023 | TSV Hartberg 2-0 Ried | Bundesliga |
| Apr 8, 2023 | Ried 1-3 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| Feb 12, 2023 | Ried 0-1 TSV Hartberg | Bundesliga |
| Aug 27, 2022 | TSV Hartberg 2-0 Ried | Bundesliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Ried score 1.4 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; TSV Hartberg score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ried | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| TSV Hartberg | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ried sit 7th in Bundesliga (4 points from 4 matches) and TSV Hartberg sit 10th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ried | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 10 | TSV Hartberg | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ried vs TSV Hartberg?
- The Footlab model makes Ried the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for TSV Hartberg.
- Where and when is Ried vs TSV Hartberg played?
- Ried vs TSV Hartberg is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Innviertel Arena, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.