Rīgas FS II vs JFK Ventspils: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)LNK Sporta Parks (dabīgais), Riga
The Footlab model makes JFK Ventspils the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 38% for Rīgas FS II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rīgas FS II vs JFK Ventspils?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Rīgas FS II (1,397) and JFK Ventspils (1,367).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rīgas FS II have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; JFK Ventspils have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(home) | 1-3 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Metta / LU(away) | 1-12 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Valmiera / BSS(away) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Smiltene(away) | 5-3 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Tukums II(away) | 0-2 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Super Nova 2(home) | 0-2 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Smiltene(home) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Riga Mariners(away) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(home) | 1-3 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Skanste(away) | 3-0 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Rīgas FS II win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 JFK Ventspils win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | JFK Ventspils 0-0 Rīgas FS II | 1. Liga |
| Sep 27, 2025 | JFK Ventspils 0-2 Rīgas FS II | 1. Liga |
| May 18, 2025 | Rīgas FS II 1-1 JFK Ventspils | 1. Liga |
| Nov 10, 2024 | JFK Ventspils 0-0 Rīgas FS II | 1. Liga |
| Jul 28, 2024 | Rīgas FS II 5-2 JFK Ventspils | 1. Liga |
| Oct 8, 2023 | JFK Ventspils 1-0 Rīgas FS II | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: JFK Ventspils vs Rīgas FS II on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rīgas FS II score 1.3 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; JFK Ventspils score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rīgas FS II | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| JFK Ventspils | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rīgas FS II sit 10th in 1. Liga (8 points from 10 matches) and JFK Ventspils sit 12th (6 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Rīgas FS II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 22 | 8 |
| 11 | Rīgas FS II | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 48 | 12 |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 6 |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 28 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rīgas FS II vs JFK Ventspils?
- The Footlab model makes JFK Ventspils the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 38% for Rīgas FS II.
- Where and when is Rīgas FS II vs JFK Ventspils played?
- Rīgas FS II vs JFK Ventspils is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at LNK Sporta Parks (dabīgais), in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.