Tukums II vs Leevon / PPK: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions, Tukums
The Footlab model makes Leevon / PPK the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Tukums II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tukums II vs Leevon / PPK?
Leevon / PPK starts as the favourite with a 236-point Elo edge (1,495 vs 1,259).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tukums II have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Leevon / PPK have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Riga Mariners(away) | 2-4 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 3, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(home) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Metta / LU(away) | 0-9 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Rīgas FS II(home) | 2-0 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 4, 2026 | Riga FC II(away) | 0-2 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Smiltene(home) | 4-2 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mārupe(away) | 1-0 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rēzekne FA(home) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Skanste(home) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Riga Mariners(home) | 2-1 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Tukums II win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Leevon / PPK win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Leevon / PPK 4-1 Tukums II | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Leevon / PPK 1-0 Tukums II | 1. Liga |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Tukums II 2-1 Leevon / PPK | 1. Liga |
| Oct 28, 2024 | Leevon / PPK 2-2 Tukums II | 1. Liga |
| Jul 5, 2024 | Tukums II 0-2 Leevon / PPK | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Leevon / PPK vs Tukums II on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tukums II score 1.3 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; Leevon / PPK score 2.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tukums II | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Leevon / PPK | 2.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tukums II sit 11th in 1. Liga (8 points from 10 matches) and Leevon / PPK sit 2nd (24 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leevon / PPK | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 24 |
| 3 | Leevon / PPK | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 20 | 39 |
| 10 | Tukums II | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 21 | 45 | 12 |
| 11 | Tukums II | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tukums II vs Leevon / PPK?
- The Footlab model makes Leevon / PPK the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Tukums II.
- Where and when is Tukums II vs Leevon / PPK played?
- Tukums II vs Leevon / PPK is played on September 6, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Tukuma mākslīgā laukumā stadions, in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.