Riga Mariners vs Rēzekne FA: prediction and stats
1. LigaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Riga Mariners the favourite at 89%, against 8% for a draw and 3% for Rēzekne FA. The most likely score is 3-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Riga Mariners vs Rēzekne FA?
Riga Mariners is a heavy favourite: 1,622 Elo points against 1,153 — a 469-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Riga Mariners have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Rēzekne FA have 1, 2 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tukums II(home) | 4-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Super Nova 2(away) | 3-0 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | JFK Ventspils(home) | 1-1 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 4, 2026 | JDFS Alberts(away) | 4-0 | 1. Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Metta / LU(home) | 0-2 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Skanste(away) | 1-5 | 1. Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leevon / PPK(away) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Mārupe(home) | 1-2 | 1. Liga |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Smiltene(away) | 0-1 | 1. Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Riga Mariners win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Rēzekne FA win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Rēzekne FA 2-2 Riga Mariners | 1. Liga |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Riga Mariners 6-0 Rēzekne FA | 1. Liga |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Rēzekne FA 2-5 Riga Mariners | 1. Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rēzekne FA vs Riga Mariners on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Riga Mariners score 2.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Rēzekne FA score 0.9 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga Mariners | 2.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Rēzekne FA | 0.9 | 2.5 | 0 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Riga Mariners sit 4th in 1. Liga (22 points from 10 matches) and Rēzekne FA sit 14th (4 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 10 | 22 |
| 4 | Riga Mariners | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 15 | 35 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 4 |
| 14 | Rēzekne FA | 17 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 13 | 48 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Riga Mariners vs Rēzekne FA?
- The Footlab model makes Riga Mariners the favourite at 89%, against 8% for a draw and 3% for Rēzekne FA.
- Where and when is Riga Mariners vs Rēzekne FA played?
- Riga Mariners vs Rēzekne FA is played on September 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the 1. Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.