Super Nova vs Rīgas FS: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Slokas Stadiona
The Footlab model makes Rīgas FS the favourite at 73%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Super Nova. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Super Nova vs Rīgas FS?
Rīgas FS is a heavy favourite: 1,955 Elo points against 1,554 — a 401-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Super Nova have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Rīgas FS have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(home) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Riga(home) | 3-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FK Jablonec(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 6-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FK Jablonec(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Super Nova win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Rīgas FS win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Super Nova 0-1 Rīgas FS | Cup |
| May 29, 2026 | Super Nova 1-2 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Rīgas FS 2-0 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Rīgas FS 5-2 Super Nova | Friendlies Clubs |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Super Nova 1-3 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Rīgas FS 4-1 Super Nova | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: Super Nova vs Rīgas FS on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Super Nova score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Rīgas FS score 2.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Nova | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Rīgas FS | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Super Nova sit 6th in Virsliga (28 points from 25 matches) and Rīgas FS sit 1st (66 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 26 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 65 | 20 | 66 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 26 | 37 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Super Nova vs Rīgas FS?
- The Footlab model makes Rīgas FS the favourite at 73%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Super Nova.
- Where and when is Super Nova vs Rīgas FS played?
- Super Nova vs Rīgas FS is played on October 23, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Slokas Stadiona, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.