Super Nova vs Rīgas FS: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Slokas Stadiona
The Footlab AI model makes Rīgas FS the favourite at 64%, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Super Nova. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Super Nova vs Rīgas FS?
Rīgas FS is a heavy favourite: 1,958 Elo points against 1,581, a 377-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Super Nova vs Rīgas FS
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Super Nova
4-2-3-1- 10V. Lizunovs
- 9Bamba
- 8I. Patrikejevs
- 6E. Emsis
- 15R. Ķiršs
- 24R. Šitjakovs
- 25M. Ošs
- 5J. Cīrulis
- 3R. Iida
- 16K. Romanovs
- 90D. Veisbuks
Rīgas FS
4-2-3-1- 15R. Ndjiki
- 18D. Zelenkovs
- 26S. Panić
- 8L. Odisharia
- 66M. Saidy
- 10J. Ikaunieks
- 23H. Prenga
- 43Ž. Lipušček
- 99S. Kumater
- 6A. Filipović
- 1R. Matrevics
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Super Nova have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Rīgas FS have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ogre United(away) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Riga(home) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Auda(away) | 1-1 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Auda(away) | 1-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Riga(home) | 2-3 | Cup |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Ogre United(away) | 3-0 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Super Nova wins, 0 draws, 6 Rīgas FS wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Super Nova 0-1 Rīgas FS | Cup |
| May 29, 2026 | Super Nova 1-2 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Rīgas FS 2-0 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Rīgas FS 5-2 Super Nova | Friendlies Clubs |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Super Nova 1-3 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Rīgas FS 4-1 Super Nova | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: Super Nova vs Rīgas FS on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Super Nova score 0.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Rīgas FS score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Nova | 0.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Rīgas FS | 1.9 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Super Nova sit 6th in Virsliga (35 points from 30 matches) and Rīgas FS sit 1st (74 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 30 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 71 | 22 | 74 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 29 | 40 | 35 |
A question about Super Nova vs Rīgas FS?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Super Nova vs Rīgas FS?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rīgas FS the favourite at 64%, against 23% for a draw and 13% for Super Nova.
- Where and when is Super Nova vs Rīgas FS played?
- Super Nova vs Rīgas FS is played on October 23, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Slokas Stadiona, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.