Rio Ave vs Maritimo: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 31Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde
The Footlab model makes Rio Ave the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Maritimo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rio Ave vs Maritimo?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Rio Ave (1,998) and Maritimo (1,995).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rio Ave have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Maritimo have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tondela(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Machico(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Rio Ave win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Maritimo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2023 | Maritimo 2-2 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 23, 2022 | Rio Ave 1-1 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 1, 2022 | Maritimo 0-1 Rio Ave | Taça da Liga |
| Apr 21, 2021 | Maritimo 1-0 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 28, 2020 | Rio Ave 1-3 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2020 | Maritimo 2-1 Rio Ave | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Rio Ave score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Maritimo score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Maritimo | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rio Ave sit 10th in Primeira Liga (3 points from 3 matches) and Maritimo sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Maritimo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rio Ave vs Maritimo?
- The Footlab model makes Rio Ave the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Maritimo.
- Where and when is Rio Ave vs Maritimo played?
- Rio Ave vs Maritimo is played on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.