Nacional vs Casa Pia: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 31Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab model makes Nacional the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nacional vs Casa Pia?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Nacional (1,982) and Casa Pia (1,954).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nacional have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Casa Pia have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Estoril(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-7 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 2-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Nacional win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Casa Pia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Nacional 0-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Casa Pia 0-2 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Nacional 3-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Casa Pia 1-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Nacional 0-0 Casa Pia | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 28, 2023 | Casa Pia 2-1 Nacional | Taça da Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nacional sit 8th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 3 matches) and Casa Pia sit 18th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nacional | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nacional vs Casa Pia?
- The Footlab model makes Nacional the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is Nacional vs Casa Pia played?
- Nacional vs Casa Pia is played on April 25, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio da Madeira, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.