River Plate vs Independ. Rivadavia: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 8Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Mâs Monumental, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes River Plate the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Independ. Rivadavia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win River Plate vs Independ. Rivadavia?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate River Plate (1,923) and Independ. Rivadavia (1,965).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, River Plate have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Independ. Rivadavia have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Argentinos JRS(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tigre(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Rosario Central(home) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Gimnasia L.P.(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Barracas Central(home) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fluminense(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Belgrano Cordoba(away) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Sarmiento Junin(away) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 River Plate win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Independ. Rivadavia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia 1-1 River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Independ. Rivadavia 0-0 River Plate | Copa Argentina |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Independ. Rivadavia 2-1 River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Mar 22, 2024 | Independ. Rivadavia 4-0 River Plate | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 7, 2024 | River Plate 2-0 Independ. Rivadavia | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Last archived meeting: Independ. Rivadavia vs River Plate on Mar 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
River Plate score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Independ. Rivadavia score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| River Plate | 1.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Independ. Rivadavia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
River Plate sit 2nd in Liga Profesional Argentina (29 points from 16 matches) and Independ. Rivadavia sit 1st (34 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 34 |
| 2 | River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 29 |
| 10 | Independ. Rivadavia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 14 | River Plate | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for River Plate vs Independ. Rivadavia?
- The Footlab model makes River Plate the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Independ. Rivadavia.
- Where and when is River Plate vs Independ. Rivadavia played?
- River Plate vs Independ. Rivadavia is played on September 6, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Mâs Monumental, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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