River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 6Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 10:15 PM (UTC)Estadio Mâs Monumental, Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes River Plate the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Velez Sarsfield. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate River Plate (1,929) and Velez Sarsfield (1,939).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, River Plate have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Velez Sarsfield have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Santa Fe(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Argentinos JRS(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tigre(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Rosario Central(home) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Gimnasia L.P.(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Defensa Y Justicia(home) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Boca Juniors(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Independiente(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Instituto Cordoba(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 River Plate win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Velez Sarsfield win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield 1-0 River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Velez Sarsfield 0-0 River Plate | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| May 4, 2025 | River Plate 4-1 Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Oct 19, 2024 | River Plate 1-1 Velez Sarsfield | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Feb 4, 2024 | River Plate 5-0 Velez Sarsfield | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Sep 3, 2023 | Velez Sarsfield 2-0 River Plate | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Last archived meeting: Velez Sarsfield vs River Plate on Feb 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
River Plate score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Velez Sarsfield score 1.4 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| River Plate | 1.0 | 0.9 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Velez Sarsfield | 1.4 | 0.8 | 6 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
River Plate sit 2nd in Liga Profesional Argentina (29 points from 16 matches) and Velez Sarsfield sit 3rd (28 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 29 |
| 2 | Velez Sarsfield | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 28 |
| 14 | River Plate | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield?
- The Footlab model makes River Plate the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Velez Sarsfield.
- Where and when is River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield played?
- River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield is played on August 23, 2026 at 10:15 PM (UTC) at Estadio Mâs Monumental, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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