Rotherham vs Gillingham: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)AESSEAL New York Stadium, Rotherham, South Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes Rotherham the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Gillingham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rotherham vs Gillingham?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Rotherham (1,697) and Gillingham (1,648).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rotherham have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Gillingham have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | York(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 1-4 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Darlington 1883(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Luton(home) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Ebbsfleet United(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Rotherham win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Gillingham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2022 | Gillingham 0-2 Rotherham | League One |
| Dec 7, 2021 | Rotherham 5-1 Gillingham | League One |
| Nov 2, 2019 | Gillingham 0-3 Rotherham | League One |
| Apr 17, 2018 | Gillingham 0-1 Rotherham | League One |
| Oct 28, 2017 | Rotherham 1-3 Gillingham | League One |
| Apr 5, 2014 | Gillingham 3-4 Rotherham | League One |
Last archived meeting: Gillingham vs Rotherham on Apr 30, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Rotherham score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Gillingham score 1.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rotherham | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Gillingham | 1.0 | 1.6 | 6 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rotherham sit 17th in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Gillingham sit 21st (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Rotherham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 21 | Gillingham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rotherham vs Gillingham?
- The Footlab model makes Rotherham the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Gillingham.
- Where and when is Rotherham vs Gillingham played?
- Rotherham vs Gillingham is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at AESSEAL New York Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.